Gambling With Loons

Premiership - 5 Apr 09 - Man Utd Vs Aston Villa

2009-04-07T10:03:00.002Z

Real panicked stuff in this game, came very close to losing it all...

I had this down as an easy win for Utd, completely on form at the moment (minus a few key players through suspension and injury), where as Aston Villa have been pretty rubbish of late. Watched the game on Sky and for the first 10 minutes it was all Utd but with no real danger so I decided to bet it all!!

Almost immediately afterwards, Utd scored and I smiled with glee, got ready to hedge it out and walk away with a £30 profit. Sadly by the time I got round to digging out my credit card to add more funds for the hedge, Villa scored. And then they scored again... now I'm staring at a £75 loss... BUGGER!

Odds went a bit crazy but there was only 20minutes left, decided to go all in and bet a little bit more on United to help increase my profit if it turned around. Almost immediately (again) they leveled but still not a winning result for me. In the dying seconds they scored again, I shouted, jumped around and hedged myself out just in case. That cost me an extra fiver in profit but wouldn't have been surprised if Villa had caught them on the break and equalised.

Lessons learned: there's no such thing as a sure bet; sometimes there can be juge swings in odds to take advantage of; watching the game live is critical, even when they were 2-1 down I could see they were going to score or at least come very close; betting more money leads to more panic but greater returns; never bet the complete pot, it stops you quickly making hedges or other bets.

Bets:

~ £74.75 (my total pot) at 1.61 on Man Utd to win before the game.
~ £5.25 at 7.2 on Man Utd to win, when they were 2-1 down with 15 minutes to go.
~ £80 at 1.04 against Man Utd to win, when they were 3-2 up deep into injury time, this was just to hedge my risk out at the end.
~ £71.20 if they won it.
~ £-80.00 if they didn't (before hedging).

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Current Available Funds	Net Amount Transferred In	Overall PnL
£71.20	£145.95	£55.01	90.94 165.3%

Outstanding Bets:

~ None

Premiership - 30 Nov 08 - Arsenal Vs Chelsea

2009-01-18T18:27:00.003Z

Bit of a late update but some betting news anyways...

Bets:

~ £5 at 5.1 on Arsenal to win.
~ £19.47 if they won it.
~ £-5 if they didn't.

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Current Available Funds	Net Amount Transferred In	Overall PnL
£19.47	£74.75	£55.01	19.74 35.9%

Outstanding Bets:

~ None

Champions League - 24 Apr 2008 - Winner: Liverpool

2008-04-24T20:46:00.002Z

I owed Matt some cash and he opted to put it on Liverpool to win the Champions League just before the start of the semi-finals. Sadly they didn't make it through to the final after losing to Chelsea. This has really destroyed all my profits from previous games but I don't mind too much as I owed Matt the money anyway...

Bets:

~ £35 at 7.00 on Martin Laursen to score.
~ £245 if they won it.
~ £-35 if they didn't.

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Current Available Funds	Net Amount Transferred In	Overall PnL
£-35.00	£55.28	£55.01	£00.27 0.5% (!!)

Outstanding Bets:

~ None

Racing - 5 Apr 08 - The Grand National

2008-04-06T13:00:00.000Z

My boss's father in law is a horse racing vet so with a bit of tipping coming from him I found out who looked good in training during the week and placed a few each-way (top four) bets on the National.

Cloudy Lane finished 6th, Mr Pointment pulled-up at the last fence after being in the lead or top 3 for most of the race - GRR!

Bets:

~ £2 at 3.15 on Cloudy Lane (the favourite) to finish in the top 4, giving £6.30.
~ £2 at 7.20 on Mr Pointment to finish in the top 4, giving £14.40.
~ £-4.00 if they didn't.

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Current Available Funds	Net Amount Transferred In	Overall PnL
£-4.00	£90.28	£55.01	35.27 64.1%

Outstanding Bets:

~ None

Premiership - 29 Mar 08 - Man Utd Vs Aston Villa: Martin Laursen to score

2008-03-30T12:00:00.004Z

Following a tip online from kickingbets I stuck £2 at 14.0 on Martin Laursen to score. Not a bad bet given the bag-full he's scored this season especially from set-pieces. Sadly I couldn't have been more wrong... Aston Villa lost 4-nil!

Bets:

~ £2 at 14.00 on Martin Laursen to score.
~ £28.00 if he scored.
~ £-2.00 if he didn't.

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Current Available Funds	Net Amount Transferred In	Overall PnL
£-2.00	£94.28	£55.01	£39.27 71.4%

Outstanding Bets:

~ None

NFL - 03 Feb 08 - Superbowl 42

2008-02-04T21:04:00.000Z

Was up late on Sunday night watching Superbowl 42: the Giants Vs the Patriots. The Pats were the outrank favorites having gone 19 games unbeaten and the Giants were pretty terrible when we saw them at Wembley at the end of last year so everyone expected them to lose. Being the only person up I decided to have a flutter on the game to keep me awake, so I bet a fiver on the Giants and then dabbled in and out as the prices moved around during the game. Its a little bit complicated but here are the first set of bets I put on:

Good Bets:

~ New York Giants - Back @ 5.3 for £5
~ New York Giants - Lay @ 3.6 for £5
~ New York Giants - Back @ 6 for £3.5
~ New York Giants - Lay @ 3.4 for £5
~ New England Patriots - Back @ 1.24 for £5
~ New England Patriots - Lay @ 1.18 for £5
~ New England Patriots - Back @ 1.45 for £5
~ New England Patriots - Lay @ 1.39 for £5

Which would have turned me a very nice profit on either result (better if the Giants won), but I also put on a few daft bets when the market moved against me and also right at the end when I thought I was making pennies extra but was going the wrong way - that'll teach me to bet at 4am!!

Bad Bets:

~ New York Giants - Lay @ 4.2 for £5
~ New York Giants - Back @ 3.75 for £5
~ New York Giants - Lay @ 1.01 for £5
~ New York Giants - Lay @ 1.01 for £10
~ New York Giants - Lay @ 1.01 for £10

But overall a profit so I guess I should be happy, a cracking forth quarter and good to see the underdog win - just don't mention the rugby!!

Bets:

~ £10.92 if the Giants win.
~ £4.50 if the Patriots win.

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Current Available Funds	Net Amount Transferred In	Overall PnL
£10.92	£96.28	£55.01	41.27 75%

Outstanding Bets:

~ None

Premiership - 24 Nov 07 - Derby Vs Chelsea

2007-11-26T22:12:00.000Z

Encouraged by yet another free fiver bet from the lovely people at betfair! I had a calculated gamble on the most likely result in football this weekend...

Bets:

~ £5 free from Betfair.
~ £5 at 1.29 on Chelsea to win.
~ £6.38 if Chelsea win.
~ £0.00 if Chelsea don't win.

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Current Available Funds	Net Amount Transferred In	Overall PnL
£6.38	£85.36	£55.01	30.35 55.2%

Outstanding Bets:

~ None

Premiership - 23 Sept 07 - Man Utd Vs Chelsea

2007-09-24T08:47:00.000Z

With the latest debacle at Chelsea, there was some easy money to be made on Man Utd on Sunday. Also helped that I had another free fiver bet from the lovely people at betfair!

Bets:

~ £5 free from Betfair.
~ £5 at 2.12 on Man Utd to win.
~ £5.32 if Man Utd win.
~ £0.00 if Man Utd don't win.

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Current Available Funds	Net Amount Transferred In	Overall PnL
£10.32	£78.98	£55.01	£23.97 43.6%

Outstanding Bets:

~ None

Copa America - 16 July 07 - Brazil Vs Argentina

2007-07-17T21:45:00.000Z

Backed Argentina to beat Brazil in the final and lost...

Here's what I backed: - Argentina to win - £5 at 1.56.

Not looking good but I only put the bet on because BetFair said they'd give me back a fiver if I lost so thanks Mr BetFair.

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Current Available Funds	Net Amount Transferred In	Overall PnL
£0.00	£68.66	£55.01	£13.65 24.8%

Outstanding Bets:

~ None

Premiership - 05 May 07 - Chelsea To Win or Lose

2007-07-17T21:37:00.000Z

The season ended so my bet on Chelsea to win or lose the premiership unwound and settled. Man Utd won which meant I didn't win as much as I could have but at least I still won!

Bets:

~ £0 at 4.5 on Chelsea to win the Premiership.
~ £2.52 if Chelsea win.
~ £1.51 if Chelsea don't win.

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Current Available Funds	Net Amount Transferred In	Overall PnL
£1.43	£68.66	£55.01	£13.65 24.8%

Outstanding Bets:

~ None

Champions League - 02 May 07 - AC Milan Vs Man Utd

2007-07-17T21:27:00.000Z

Backed Man Utd to beat AC Milan in the semi-final and lost...

Here's what I backed: - Man Utd to win - £5 at 3.65.

Not looking good but I only put the bet on because BetFair said they'd give me back a fiver if I lost so thanks Mr BetFair.

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Current Available Funds	Net Amount Transferred In	Overall PnL
£0.00	£67.23	£55.01	£12.22 22.2%

Outstanding Bets:

~ £0 at 4.5 on Chelsea to win the Premiership
~ £2.52 if Chelsea win.
~ £1.51 if Chelsea don't win.

Racing - 15 Apr 07 - The Grand National

2007-04-16T12:20:00.000Z

Took a couple of punts on the Grand National, thanks to a tip from an insider - tip turned out to be rubbish - neither hourse I backed even finished! Can't complain really, but my profits will dwindle fast if I keep making random bets...

Here's what I backed:
- Idle Talk to be placed (finish in the top 4) - £2 at 6.80.
- Joes Edge to be placed (finish in the top 4) - £2 at 4.40.

Here's what happened:
- Idle Talk - "Unseated rider at 19th fence".
- Joes Edge - "Pulled up at 20th fence.".

And to make things worse I just found out that my boss (the tipster) backed the winner at 33-1! Hmmm...

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Current Available Funds	Net Amount Transferred In	Overall PnL
£-4.00	£67.23	£55.01	£12.22 22.2%

Outstanding Bets:

  ~ £0 at 4.5 on Chelsea to win the Premiership
  ~ £2.52 if Chelsea win.
  ~ £1.51 if Chelsea don't win.

Free Money! - 31 Mar 07

2007-04-02T23:29:00.000Z

Got a phone call from Bet Fair today, asked me a bunch of questions and for some feedback - for being nice and not slamming the phone down on them - they gave me a fiver! Every penny counts...

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Current Available Funds	Net Amount Transferred In	Overall PnL
£5.00	£71.23	£55.01	£16.22 29.5%

Outstanding Bets:

  ~ £0 at 4.5 on Chelsea to win the Premiership
  ~ £2.52 if Chelsea win.
  ~ £1.51 if Chelsea don't win.

Premiership - 31 Mar 07 - Watford Vs Chelsea

2007-04-02T22:02:00.000Z

Thought I'd just start betting on a few games, so put a fiver on Chelsea to beat Watford, was a bit of a shock that they needed a last minute goal to do it! Backed Chelsea to win for a fiver at 1.34. A very small win but a win none the less...

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Current Available Funds	Net Amount Transferred In	Overall PnL
£1.61	£66.23	£55.01	£11.22 20.5%

Outstanding Bets:

  ~ £0 at 4.5 on Chelsea to win the Premiership
  ~ £2.52 if Chelsea win.
  ~ £1.51 if Chelsea don't win.

Corrections - 21 Mar 07

2007-03-21T00:59:00.000Z

Somewhere along the lines my accounting has gone wrong, not sure exactly where, think I was double counting the commission I pay bet fair or something but thought I'd post a correction... and tweak the way I post my results...

So the good news: I'm in profit!

And the bad, I've spent quite a lot of time betting on over 10 events to get that amount, its clearly not a get rich quick scheme, but its been fun and its got potential!

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Current Available Funds	Net Amount Transferred In	Overall PnL
£0.00	£64.62	£55.01	£9.61 17.5%

Outstanding Bets:

  ~ £0 at 4.5 on Chelsea to win the Premiership
  ~ £2.52 if Chelsea win.
  ~ £1.51 if Chelsea don't win.

Free Money! - 14 Mar 07

2007-03-14T23:37:00.000Z

Betfair is offering a deal at the moment, transfer more than a fiver into your account from PayPal and they will pay you a fiver. You don't even have to bet! An offer too good to refuse? You bet ya!

Transferred in £5.01.

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Overall PnL	Current Available Funds
£5.00	£8.41	£61.43

Outstanding Bets:

  ~ £0 at 4.5 on Chelsea to win the Premiership
  ~ £2.52 if Chelsea win.
  ~ £1.51 if Chelsea don't win.

Champions League - 7 Mar 07 - Multiples

2007-03-07T15:02:00.000Z

Thought I'd experiment a little with a multiples bet. A multiples bet is like an accumulator in a standard bookies, the result of the first event are rolled into the next bet and so on. If you lose one of your best then you lose all the cash. One slight change from the standard BetFair bets is that you are betting against BetFair and not some other random punter.

So I gave it a go and:
- Backed Man Utd to beat Lille
- Backed Real Madrid to beat Bayern Munich
- Backed AC Milan to beat Celtic
Although Man Utd won, the other two lost so I lost my £2, I would have won £4 if the best had paid out, not bad for backing the favorite in each game!

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Overall PnL	Current Available Funds
£-2.00	£3.41	£51.42

Outstanding Bets:

  ~ £0 at 4.5 on Chelsea to win the Premiership
  ~ £2.52 if Chelsea win.
  ~ £1.51 if Chelsea don't win.

Withdrawl - 6 Mar 07

2007-03-06T14:58:00.000Z

Withdrew £50 back out of my bet fair account to cancel out the £50 I transferred in on the 17th of Feb.

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Overall PnL	Current Available Funds
£-50.00	£5.41	£53.42

Outstanding Bets:

  ~ £0 at 4.5 on Chelsea to win the Premiership
  ~ £2.52 if Chelsea win.
  ~ £1.51 if Chelsea don't win.

Premiership - 3 Mar 07 - Chelsea To Win or Lose

2007-03-03T14:25:00.000Z

A while ago I was looking at the odds for the Premiership title and decided that Chelsea were worth a gamble at 4.5, especially with Ashley Cole, Joe Cole and Terry coming back. But from the moment I placed that bet things have started to slide towards Man Utd and the odds have lengthened (leaving me potentially out of pocket). Sooo... I kept a close eye on the odds during both the Man Utd and Chelsea games today and just managed to close out my bets for a small profit - result!

- Backed Chelsea to win the title for £26.00 at 4.5
And:
- Layed Chelsea to win the title for £4.51 at 4.3
- Layed Chelsea to win the title for £23.00 at 4.2

So if Chelsea win the title, I will win £2.52 and if they don't I will win £1.51. Not a huge profit by any means on a £26 investment but at least I've closed out what was a losing position for a small profit with either result. I'm happy although I don't get the cash until the title is decided!

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Overall PnL	Current Available Funds
£0.00 (so far)	£5.41	£103.42

Outstanding Bets:

  ~ £0 at 4.5 on Chelsea to win the Premiership
  ~ £2.52 if Chelsea win.
  ~ £1.51 if Chelsea don't win.

Premiership - 3 Mar 07 - Liverpool v Man Utd

2007-03-03T13:17:00.000Z

- Layed the draw for £10.00 at 2.98.
And after a goal a while later I:
- Backed the draw for £2.00 at 34.00

So overall I'm now back in profit, although I still have one bet outstanding and that's starting to look like I'm backing the wrong option...

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Overall PnL	Current Available Funds
£7.40	£5.41	£77.42

Outstanding Bets:

~ £26.00 at 4.5 on Chelsea to win the Premiership

FA Cup - 28 Feb 07 - Blackburn v Arsenal

2007-03-01T13:15:00.000Z

Tried my hand at scratch betting today... what's scratch betting I hear you ask? Well I'm not entirely sure myself to be honest but it seems to be trading the market very quickly to take advantage of small predictable movements to make small profits. The important thing to do is make sure you don't hold a position for very long as you risk losing a lot if the odds suddenly move against you.

- Layed the draw for £10.00 at 1.54.
And 3 seconds later I:
- Backed the draw for £10.00 at 1.56.
This means I'd make 2% on my bet if it was a draw and I'd lose nothing if it wasn't. And then I:
- Layed the draw for £10.00 at 1.39.
And 10 seconds later I:
- Backed the draw for £10.00 at 1.42.
This means I'd make 3% on my bet if it was a draw and I'd lose nothing if it wasn't.

Using the above I had created a 5% or 50p possible profit if the game ended in a draw, I kept an eye on the odds and waited until they started a long and predictable slide and then jumped in and out very quickly to make a small amount each time.

Although I had created a potential profit on it being a draw, I hadn't created any possible gain or loss on it being anything else. The game was dire so looked like it would be a draw and I was quite happy. But then Benny McCarthy scored in the dying minutes and I lost the profit. No big deal, only 50p but a good experiment for the future.

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Overall PnL	Current Available Funds
£0.00	£-1.99	£72.01

Outstanding Bets:

~ £26.00 at 4.5 on Chelsea to win the Premiership

Lessons learned:

~ Scratch betting is possible and excting, the adrenaline starts to flow. Some attention to the direction and flow of the odds over time is important and its difficult to keep track of.

Bonus - 27 Feb 07 - Challenge 2 Complete

2007-02-26T22:42:00.000Z

BetFair kindly gave me a £10 bonus for making some more initial bets (playing in the casino, playing poker and playing an exchange game. Now none of these bets are gambles I wanted to make so I bet as little as possible in each just to get the challenge done!

*Events:*	*PnL*
~ Played a single hand of poker on the 5 cent table and I won!	£0.09
~ Played a single £2 card higher-or-lower exchange game and I won!	£0.56
~ Played a single £2 spin of the roulette wheel, betting on black and I lost!	-£2.00
~ But for all of that I get £10.00 for free!	£10.00

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Overall PnL	Current Available Funds
£8.65	£-1.99	£72.01

Outstanding Bets:

~ £26.00 at 4.5 on Chelsea to win the Premiership (now at 5.0).

Premiership - 25 Feb 07 - Wigan v Newcastle

2007-02-26T08:03:00.000Z

Layed the draw for £7.50 at 2.96.
Backed the draw for £5.50 at 3.95.

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Overall PnL	Current Available Funds
£1.90	£-10.64	£63.36

Outstanding Bets:

~ £26.00 at 4.5 on Chelsea to win the Premiership

Champions League - 20 Feb 07 - Lille v Man Utd

2007-02-20T22:02:00.000Z

Layed the draw for £5.00 at 2.98.
Backed the draw for £2 at 13.

Finally back in the green no matter what the result! Unfortunately I couldn't quite put on the amount I wanted as there is a £2 minimum bet. And as result I would have won a lot if it had ended in a draw but would only win a little if the result ended with a winner. No matter really, was good to make a profit!

Despite winning I still think there are some lessons to learn...

Lessons learned:

~ Some games are just best avoided, Lille v Man Utd on a terrible pitch had a nil-nil draw written all over it, I should have avoided this game.

~ As the old saying goes, those who dare win - although I didn't win very much.

~ This strategy is never gonna make me rich, I think its a good way to make a little but I'm never gonna make a fortune.

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Overall PnL	Current Available Funds
£2.85	£-12.54	£61.46

Outstanding Bets:

~ £26.00 at 4.5 on Chelsea to win the Premiership

Premiership - 17 Feb 07 - Man Utd v Reading

2007-02-17T23:59:00.000Z

Layed the draw for £5.00 at 5.40 (therefore standing to lose £22.00).
Backed the draw for £2.50 at 10 (therefore standing to win £25.00).

So was in the green no matter what the result... but then because I was listening to the game and thought I knew better, it seemed like Man Utd were gonna score so I...

Layed the draw for £5.00 at 2.08 (therefore standing to lose £5.40).

The odds never moved in my favour so I couldn't cash out and sure enough it was a draw... grr - second loss! My own fault for trying to make up for my earlier heavy loss.

Lessons learned:

~ Don't get emotionally involved in the game.

~ If you are in the green (i.e. no matter what the result you will win), then don't do anything, keep that cash!

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Overall PnL	Current Available Funds
£-3.10	£-15.39	£58.61

Outstanding Bets:

~ £26.00 at 4.5 on Chelsea to win the Premiership

Premiership - 17 Feb 07 - Arsenal v Blackburn

2007-02-17T23:14:00.000Z

Deposited £50.00

Layed the draw for £10.00 at 3.8 (therefore standing to lose £28.00).

The odds never moved in my favour so I couldn't cash out and sure enough it was a draw... grr - first loss!

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Overall PnL	Current Available Funds
£-28.00	£-12.29	£61.71

Outstanding Bets:

~ £26.00 at 4.5 on Chelsea to win the Premiership

Bonus - 13 Feb 07 - Challenge 1 Complete

2007-02-13T23:59:00.000Z

BetFair kindly gave me a £10 bonus for making some initial bets (backing, laying and in-play). Nothing like some free money!

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Overall PnL	Current Available Funds
£10.00	£15.71	£39.71

Outstanding Bets:

~ £26.00 at 4.5 on Chelsea to win the Premiership

Premiership - 13 Feb 07 - Chelsea To Win

2007-02-13T22:59:00.000Z

Backed Chelsea to win the Premiership for £26.00 at 4.5 (therefore standing to win £117.00).

Not sure whether to hold this for a long time or cash it in as the odds (hopefully drop)...

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Overall PnL	Current Available Funds
£0 (so far)	£5.71	£29.71

Outstanding Bets:

~ £26.00 at 4.5 on Chelsea to win the Premiership

Premiership - 11 Feb 07 - Arsenal v Wigan

2007-02-11T23:59:00.000Z

Layed the draw for £5.00 at 5.7 (therefore standing to lose £28.50).

But it wasn't a draw, so I won £5.00 minus fees, £4.75 banked profit.

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Overall PnL	Current Available Funds
£4.75	£5.71	£55.71

Outstanding Bets:

~ NONE

Premiership - 11 Feb 07 - Bolton v Fulham

2007-02-11T23:39:00.000Z

Deposited £49.25 (£50.00 minus paypal fees).

Layed the draw for £5.00 at 3.55 (therefore standing to lose £17.75).
Backed the draw for £3.20 at 5.6 (therefore standing to win £17.92).

But it wasn't a draw, so I lost 3.20 but won £5.00, leaving £1.80 profit minus fees, £1.71 banked profit.

*Summary:*
Match PnL	Overall PnL	Current Available Funds
£1.71	£0.96	£50.96

Outstanding Bets:

~ NONE

What's this?

2007-01-01T11:21:00.000Z

So what is this then?

Well I've got a strategy for making money on BetFair (or any other gambling exchange) and I want to see how it goes...

I've seen a bunch of other gambling blogs and thought it would be interesting to track my fortunes (or lost fortunes) as we go.

Each time I bet, I'll record it here with daily and overall PnL.